Dynamic vulnerability of ecological systems to climate changes across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

At present, climate change has brought huge challenges to vegetation and ecosystems. As the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a sensitive area of global change, dynamic assessment its ecological vulnerability very important. In order better quantify relative size QTP, this study starts from background characteristics process ecosystem, by fitting index net primary productivity (NPP) temperature, precipitation meteorological elements. The coefficients autocorrelation multiple linear regression are used construct an model three dimensions “exposure-sensitivity-elasticity” conduct vulnerability. Based on evaluation results, 2000 2015, ecologically fragile areas were mainly distributed in eastern central QTP. fragility western region showed obvious discontinuities, with high low vulnerabilities staggered. ecosystems forest, grassland, bare land have significant differences their showing clear positive correlation exposure, sensitivity, resilience, but terms contribution rates dimensions. performance relatively similar, relationship between balanced. longitude sample points greater impact dimensions, more than that temperature. This research provides theoretical support for plateau conservation security under influence climate.